Early Oscar Predictions – Who Will Win Best Film?

Published on 11/23/2022

The Oscar race is starting to take form now that the fall film festivals—Venice, Telluride, Toronto, and New York—have virtually concluded. A few films, including Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, Todd Field’s TR, and Sarah Polley’s Women Talking, appear to be best positioned to compete for the Best Picture award, while Oscar newcomers Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell, and Janelle Monae appear to be good bets to earn acting nominations alongside past winners Cate Blanchett, Viola Davis, and Eddie Redmayne. For our ranking lists for the forthcoming Oscars, keep reading!

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Early Oscar Predictions – Who Will Win Best Film?


Best Picture

Could this year’s primary race have four sequels? It’s possible since there must be a minimum of 10 Best Picture candidates. Of course, because the Avatar and Black Panther sequels have yet to be released, as well as Damian Chazelle’s Babylon and Antoine Fuqua’s Will Smith vehicle Emancipation, this list is subject to change over the next several weeks. However, The Fabelmans, which won the coveted People’s Choice Award in Toronto, is the film to beat.

Here Are Our Picks:
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Women Talking
Empire of Light
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Top Gun: Maverick
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Director

Steven Spielberg hasn’t stood on the Oscar stage to accept a prize in 24 years. He is now the favorite to win his third Best Director award thanks to his semi-autobiographical drama The Fabelmans, which he considers to be his most personal work to date.

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Daniel Scheinert & Dan Kwan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jordan Peele, Nope

Best Actor

Brendan Fraser is unquestionably the early favorite on the emotional front after receiving a rhapsodic festival reception for his performance in The Whale. However, Colin Farrell, who beat Fraser to the Best Actor award at Venice, will continue to be a strong contender all season.

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Adam Sandler, Hustle
Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Adam Driver, White Noise
Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto

Best Actress

The most competitive category this year pits potential first-time nominees Michelle Yeoh and Danielle Deadwyler against a number of previous winners (Cate Blanchett, Olivia Colman, Viola Davis, Emma Thompson, and Jennifer Lawrence). Undoubtedly, a number of excellent performances won’t be included.

Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Mia Goth, Pearl
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Emma Corrin, Lady Chatterley’s Lover

Best Supporting Actor

As is frequently the case, this category may be the most competitive, as notable cameos (hello, Judd Hirsch of The Fablemans!) compete with significant supporting roles. With this competition, anything is possible.

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Mark Rylance, Bones and All
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light

Best Supporting Actress

This election has really opened up since Michelle Williams decided to run for The Fabelmans as a leading actress. Expect Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking to receive at least one slot, and Kerry Condon, the breakout star from Banshees of Inisherin, to receive another.

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Nina Hoss, TÁR
Laura Dern, The Son
Gabrielle Union, The Inspection
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once